Adam Looney and Constantine Yannelis have reopened their research on the student loan mess with a new paper from Brookings titled
The paper talks about what went tragically wrong with student loans in the United States from 2000 to 2020.
Here are the key points:
1. More people started going to college, especially those who didn't have a lot of money or whose parents didn't go to college. [See note below]
2. To pay for college, many of these new students had to borrow money from the government through student loans.
3. A lot of these new students went to for-profit schools. These are schools that are run like businesses to make money, unlike regular public or non-profit colleges.
4. The problem is that many of these for-profit schools didn't provide a good education. Their students often didn't graduate or couldn't find good jobs after finishing school.
5. Because these students couldn't get good jobs, they had trouble paying back their loans. This caused a big problem for the government and the students.
Now, let's look at Figure 3 Panel B:
This graph shows how many first-generation college students (students whose parents didn't go to college) enrolled in different types of schools. The schools are grouped by how well their students could repay loans. The red line at the bottom represents the best schools - where students usually paid back their loans easily. You can see this line barely goes up over time. The dark blue line at the top represents the worst schools - where students had the most trouble paying back loans. This line goes way up, especially after 2000.
What this means is that a lot of first-generation students, who often didn't have much money to begin with, ended up at the schools where they were least likely to succeed and most likely to have trouble with their loans.
The for-profit schools took advantage of this situation. They aggressively recruited these students, knowing they could get money from government loans. But they didn't focus on giving students a good education or helping them get jobs. Instead, they just wanted to make money for themselves.
This led to a big increase in student debt problems, especially for students who were already at a disadvantage.
Note: This statement refers to trends in college enrollment that occurred in the early 2000s through about 2012. Let me explain the reasons behind this trend and whether it's still true today:
Reasons for Increased College Enrollment1.
Policy Changes: Starting in the late 1990s, policymakers weakened regulations that had previously constrained institutions from enrolling aid-dependent students[1]. This made it easier for more people to access federal student aid and enroll in college.
2.
Economic Factors: - The persistently high return to college education over the last several decades increased demand for higher education[1].
- During economic downturns like the 2001 recession and the Great Recession starting in 2007, the opportunity cost of enrollment was low due to weak labor markets[1].
3.
Supply Expansion: The supply of programs surged, particularly open access institutions, online programs, and graduate programs[1]. Many of these new programs were targeted at non-traditional student populations.
4.
Demographic Shifts: Between 1990 and 2010, the number of high school graduates increased by 34%[1].
Is it Still True?The trend of increased college enrollment, especially among disadvantaged groups, has partially reversed since its peak:
1.
Overall Enrollment: By 2020, total undergraduate enrollment had declined back to near its level in 2000[1].
2.
Demographic Changes: - Black undergraduate enrollment in 2020 remains only modestly higher than in 2000 - about 10% greater[1].
- White undergraduate enrollment in 2020 was below its level in 2000[1].
- Hispanic enrollment almost doubled between 2000 and 2020[1].
3.
First-Generation Students: While 60% of postsecondary students were first-generation in 2000, this share declined to 56% in 2020[1].
4.
For-Profit Sector: Enrollment at for-profit institutions, which had surged between 2000 and 2012, has since declined significantly[1].
In summary, while there was a significant increase in college enrollment, especially among disadvantaged groups, from 2000 to 2012, this trend has partially reversed in recent years. However, some changes, like increased Hispanic enrollment, have persisted. The overall landscape of higher education enrollment continues to evolve, influenced by economic conditions, policy changes, and demographic shifts.
Citations:
[1]
https://ppl-ai-file-upload.s3.amazonaws.com/web/direct-files/238393/f60f1373-2266-45ed-8960-6656ba110b38/paste.txt[2]
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/first-generation-college-students-face-unique-challenges/[3]
https://www.capturehighered.com/client-blog/landscape-in-flux-2024-enrollment-trends/[4]
https://medicat.com/why-first-gen-college-students-need-extra-support/[5]
https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2019/05/23/pew-study-finds-more-poor-students-attending-college[6]
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/education/online-colleges/first-generation-college-students-by-state/[7]
https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/cpb/college-enrollment-rate
