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Monday, August 31, 2020
Student Loan Volumes Show College Meltdown Has Accelerated
Monday, May 18, 2020
Charlie Kirk's Turning Point Empire Takes Advantage of Failing Federal Agencies As Right-Wing Assault on Division I College Campuses Continues
Charlie Kirk's organizations have become well-funded Donald Trump youth groups, supporting unrestrained gun rights, fossil fuels, deregulation, and political cover for whatever Donald Trump needs.
Jane Mayer (New Yorker), Lachlan Markay (Daily Beast), Mike Vasquez (Chronicle of Higher Education), Haley Victory Smith (USA Today), Alex Kotch (Sludge), the Southern Poverty Law Center (Hate Watch) and the Anti-Defamation League have done good work in documenting important and unsettling aspects of Kirk's empire: questionable business practices that evade IRS and federal election rules, acting as a corrupting influence in college elections, promoting disinformation for the National Rifle Association and the fossil fuel industry, lying for President Trump, using surreptitious listening devices on campuses, intimidating professors and minority students who oppose President Trump, and opening the door for hate speech on campus.
Politico has also documented Turning Point's Arizona headquarters, a beehive of activity for Kirk's non-profits. But Politico failed to ask any tough questions about TPUSA's questionable practices on and off campus. They didn't even bother to ask questions about the potentially illegal intermingling of personnel and resources at Turning Point. While Politico noted the organization's access to the White House, they failed to mention Turning Point's use of Trump's Mar-a-Lago Resort for exclusive, high-priced events.
Turning Point Action was formed in May 2019 and now acts as the parent company of Students For Trump (SFT). SFT previously acted as a non-affiliated political committee, but it was administatively terminated by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) in April 2018. Their only treasurer, John Lambert, pleaded guilty to wire fraud charges in August 2019. Less than a month later, SFT sponsored a relaunch in Las Vegas at the Palms Hotel, owned by Trump allies, the Fertittas.
Should Turning Point Action be filing with the FEC as a political action committee? It's anyone's guess, and it really doesn't matter during the Trump era. Current rulings and guidelines, the Citizens United Supreme Court decision, and lack of a quorum at the FEC make a complaint to the FEC next to useless. The same is true about asking the IRS to look into the intermingling of funds between Turning Point USA, a 501c3 and Turning Point Action, a 501c4 and parent organization of Students For Trump.
With Trump's Executive Order for Free Speech on Campus (which penalizes colleges for preventing "speech" of all sorts, particularly Trumpian speech), Charlie Kirk and his organizations have more openings for hate speech and dirty tricks on campus. Schools that deny this "free speech" could potentially lose their federal funding streams. Perhaps college students should exercise their 1st Amendment rights and employ a Watchlist for Turning Point activists that are breaking federal and state election laws.
Turning Point USA Blurs the Line Between Charity and Pro-Trump Political Group (Alex Kotch, Sludge)
A Conservative Nonprofit That Seeks to Transform College Campuses Faces Allegations of Racial Bias and Illegal Campaign Activity (Jane Mayer, New Yorker)
5 Takeaways From Turning Point’s Plan to ‘Commandeer’ Campus Elections (Michael Vasquez, Chronicle of Higher Education)
Students For Trump Is More Dangerous Than You Think
Pro-Trump Non-Profit Sign of the (Corrupt) Times
Turning Point USA opens door for hate groups and gun violence on campus
Charlie Kirk, Turning Point USA incite racial conflict, secret surveillance on campus
The Rise of the Battleground Campus (Kyle Spencer, Politico)
Trump’s Free-Speech Executive Order and the Right’s Fixation on Campus Politics (Osita Nwanevu, New Yorker)
I went inside a rightwing safe space to find out the truth about universities (Cas Mudde, The Guardian)
Extremism, Terrorism, and Bigotry: Turning Point USA (Anti-Defamation League)
Turning Point USA accused of boosting their numbers with racists by long-established conservative student group (Southern Poverty Law Center, Hate Watch)
Tuesday, May 5, 2020
The US Working-Class Depression: "Let's all pretend we couldn't see it coming."
The "disrupters" (21st century robber barons) have enabled an alienating and anomic system that is highly dysfunctional for most of the planet, using "algorithms of oppression." And this cannot be solved with data alchemy, marketing, and other forms of sophistry.
Put down your iPhone for a minute and ponder these rhetorical questions:
- How did people not know that another economic crisis was around the corner?
- Doesn't anyone have a sense of US economic history?
- Doesn't anybody read? Even a little?
- Wasn't it only a dozen years ago that we faced a similar crisis?
Warm Koolaid (2016) signified corporate America's use of myths and distractions to sedate the masses.
Who will hear the warnings and do something constructive for our future? Or is this Covid crisis another opportunity for the rich to cash in on the tragedy?
The answer lies, in part, to an ignorance of history and science, and oversupply of low-grade information, poor critical thinking skills, and lots of distractions. That's in addition to the massive greed and ill will by the rich and powerful.
"An economy based on mass deception, exploitation, degradation and oppression, violence, war, and massive environmental destruction...is unsustainable."
Monday, April 20, 2020
Revising Indicators of the College Meltdown during the Panic of 2020
Insiders in higher education and at bond rating agencies know how bad the College Meltdown has become. They have been tracking it for years, and know the most vulnerable schools by name. What indicators do they use, and why aren't the People privy to the information?
In May 2017, I posted the short piece, Charting the College Meltdown. The article included a spreadsheet of key variables that could be used to gauge the direction and intensity of the downturn in US higher education.
Nathan Grawe's analysis of demographic trends also projected a dramatic loss in the college enrollment pipeline in 2026, a ripple effect of the 2008 Great Recession.
One of the problems with even doing an analysis is the lack of data and the quality of data. As part of their plan to deregulate, defund, and privatize higher education, the Trump Administration has discouraged transparency and accountability measures put in place during the Obama Administration.
Student loan defaults, measured by the 3-year student loan default rate, is a poor indictor of problems in the student loan system. Colleges and universities have learned how to game the system, offering deferments to students to keep debtors from defaulting in the three-year window. Student loan repayment rates, a good proxy for long-term defaults, have been eliminated from the College Scorecard.
Variables, like the actual quality of Student Loan Asset-Backed Securities (SLABS) can only be gained through inside information.
The New York Federal Reserve had been a source for the College Meltdown, but recently they appeared to be more like cheerleaders of the industry rather than objective analysts.
In addition, US Department of Education data is released at a plodding pace, often lagging about 2 years. That's why data from the National Student Clearinghouse are so important.
What variables do you think are the most important in gauging the higher education business? And what variables should be added or removed from the chart?
More resources from College Meltdown
Observations of the College Meltdown in Real Time
College Meltdown Resources (includes college choice and career planning tools)
A preliminary list of private colleges at risk
Are Brand Name Coding Bootcamps the New Higher Education Scam?
College Meltdown Expands to Elite Universities
Education is a Racket
Higher Learning Commission: Accreditation Is No Sign Of Quality
The Slow-motion Collapse of America's Largest University
Enrollment declines, campus closings, economic losses and the hollowing out of America
Community Colleges at the Heart of the College Meltdown
What happens when Big 10 grads think "college is bullsh*t"?
US Departments of Education, Defense, and Veterans Affairs Shirk Responsibilities to Servicemembers, Veterans, and Their Families
The College Meltdown Is Painfully Obvious
When College Choice is a Fraud
Music Videos of the College Meltdown
Sunday, March 15, 2020
Coronavirus and the College Meltdown
College and university enrollment has been declining slowly but constantly since 2011, with for-profit colleges and community colleges taking the largest hits. And it follows larger demographic trends which include a half century of increasing inequality, including "savage inequalities" in the K-12 pipeline, crushing student loan debt, decreasing social mobility and the underemployment of college graduates, smaller families, and the hollowing out of America.
Spending on college is also an increasingly risky decision for working families.
A larger enrollment decline is projected for 2026, a ripple effect of the Great Recession of 2008. With fewer younger people to attend college, this "enrollment cliff" could amount to a 15 percent drop in a single year.
There are many parts to the current Coronavirus crisis and its effects on US higher education. But they all boil down to the Trump mantra (defund, deregulate, and privatize) and the opportunity for the elites to capitalize from the crisis, as they did during and after the Great Recession.
Whether the next President is Donald Trump or Joe Biden, things could get worse for working families, unless there is mass resistance--right now I don't see that happening. For the moment, many young people are responding by living with family, not going to college, and delaying child bearing. Those who do get an education are also making economic sacrifices. Some, for example are selling their bodies as Sugar Babies to get through school.
Many state economies also look bleak in the near future. Not enough in revenues and increasing Medicaid costs make investments in education difficult to do without increasing taxes or state-level debt. And it's not likely that the wealthy will be willing to pay their fair share, unless they feel economically threatened. If that happens, rich companies and rich people can just move out of state or out of the country.
Higher Education and the Student Loan Mess
In October 2019, Trump Department of Education official Wayne Johnson resigned, recognizing that student loan debt mess was worse than anyone had imagined. US higher education enrollment is supposed to be countercyclical (improving when the economy drops) , but don't bet on it without government help.
Haven't heard any rumors in months, but it should also be interesting to see if President Trump tries to unload the $1.5T in federal loans to his banking friends using an executive order. McKinsey & Company have been tasked to determine the possibilities of such a maneuver, but there is radio silence on that front.
In the education sector, I'm watching student loan servicers and private lenders Sallie Mae (SLM), Navient (NAVI), and Nelnet (NNI) closely. Student Loan Asset-Backed Securities (also known as SLABS) are also worthy of scrutiny given the low rates of student loan repayment.
Newest Links
- Latest Coronavirus News (Inside Higher Education)
- Moody's lowers higher ed outlook to negative amid coronavirus crisis (Jeremy Bauer-Wolf, Education Dive)
- What Is a College Education in the Time of Coronavirus? (NY Times Opinion)
- Community Colleges and the Coronavirus (Madeline St. Amour, Inside Higher Education)
- California AG sues Betsy DeVos for overturning Obama-era rule aimed at for-profit colleges (Aarthi Swaminathan, Yahoo Finance)
- Coronavirus and Admissions Fears (Scott Jaschick, Inside Higher Education)
- Already stretched universities now face huge endowment losses from market meltdown (PBS, Jon Marcus)
- Uncertain Fate for Support Staff (Lilah Burke, IHE)
- 41% of Recent Grads Work in Jobs Not Requiring a Degree (Inside Higher Education)
- College Students Losing SNAP Benefits (Inside Higher Education)
- New Jersey Passes Contingent Faculty Bill of Rights (The Adjunct Crisis)
- Many Nonprofit College Programs Would Fail Gainful Test (Inside Higher Education)
- The College Wealth Premium Has Collapsed (Annie Lowrey, The Atlantic)
- Trump DOJ Compels NACAC to Soften Ethics for College Admissions (Inside Higher Education)
- Student Debt Is Transforming the American Family (Hua Hsu, New Yorker)
- Community college enrollment down 25% nationally since 2011, Census Bureau estimates (Cleveland.com)
- Break Up the BA Cartel (Frederick M. Hess, National Review)
- Wealthy Students' Borrowing Spikes (Rick Seltzer, Inside Higher Education)
- Behind Closed Doors in Washington, Here’s What Colleges Fight For (Kevin Carey, NY Times)
- Preparing for the Great Enrollment Crash (Inside Higher Education)
- List of 946 Financial Ailing Colleges Kept Secret (Inside Higher Education)
- How Colleges Can Survive the Coming Enrollment Crash (Rob Jenkins, James G. Martin Center)
- Colleges, face up to the rocky financial reality (CNN opinion)
- Trump education official to resign and call for mass student loan forgiveness (Josh Mitchell, Wall Street Journal)
- Worst Colleges in America, By State
- Colleges Ill-prepared for the Future (Inside Higher Ed)
- Has the Chamber of Commerce Hijacked YOUR Education System? Engineering Students For A Low-Wage, Gig Economy (Wrench in the Gears)
- The Educated Underclass (Gary Roth)
- Sallie Mae execs tan at Maui retreat while student debt crisis tops $1.6 trillion (NBC News Investigates)
- Flagship Universities are Unaffordable to Most Citizens (IHEP)
- 99% Rejected For Student Loan Forgiveness - Again (Zack Friedman, Forbes)
- The other victims when colleges decline or close: their hometowns (Hechinger Report)
- HBCUs Plan Cuts After Congress Misses Funding Deadline (Inside Higher Education)
- Trump Administration Hires McKinsey to Evaluate Student-Loan Portfolio (Wall Street Journal)
- Campus Facilities Facing Debt Crisis and Staffing Cuts (Sightlines)
- TCF Analysis of 70+ University-OPM Contracts Reveals Increasing Risks to Students, Public Education
- DOWNFALL OF NCAA WOULD IMPROVE AMERICAN EDUCATION (Randall Collins)
Sunday, January 12, 2020
Are “Best for Vets” and “Military Friendly Colleges” Rankings Believable?
GI Bill benefits are a well-deserved reward for your years of military service. They are also an important, but not endless asset for you and your family to transition back to civilian life and to have a good future. In a 2018 Military Times opinion piece, I suggested 8 tips for choosing a college. Those tips are an important primer, but even more education is necessary to spend your GI Bill funds wisely. Military Times, GI Jobs, and others have compiled “Best for Vets” and “Military Friendly School” lists for servicemembers and veterans, but are their lists credible?
Military Friendly?
Whether you are on post, off post, or surfing online, hucksters are trying to sell you their schools, calling them “military friendly.” Servicemembers, veterans, and their families are inundated with advertisements and recruiting for schools--and often these schools are what I call “subprime,” meaning they have questionable value and use questionable tactics to recruit. These messages appear on billboards, ads at the top of your Google or Bing search, on your feeds on Facebook, LinkedIn, and other social media, in ads embedded in internet articles, and in local newspapers, and magazines in unemployment offices and in grocery stores. And once they get your personal information, subprime schools may end up sending you a slew of texts and phone calls pitching their messages.
Military Times, GI Jobs, and other media produce college rankings specifically for servicemembers, veterans, and their families. This lists have some valuable information, but they should not be used exclusively for making the best college choice. You should be particularly skeptical of advertisements in these and other sources, which may or may not be helpful in making college choices. In some cases, websites posing as informational tools for veterans are actually internet predators.
Military Times’ “Best for Vet” Lists
Military Times (publisher of Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Times) produces a “Best for Vets” list that includes separate lists for 4-year colleges, two year colleges, online and non-traditional colleges and vocational colleges. The schools are ranked by factors such as: whether they have a veterans center, military retention rate, military graduation rate, and affordability for people using DOD Tuition Assistance and GI Bill funds.
The Best for Vets four-year college list has schools with value, with University of Texas, Arlington, Colorado State University, University of Nebraska, Omaha, and Syracuse University topping the list. But while these schools may be good for many veterans, high-performing veterans may be better served at highly selective schools like Columbia University, Cornell University, and Stanford. If you have done well on the SAT or ACT and shown promise in your educational work, Warrior-Scholar and Service2School may be important allies.
Military Times’ lists of 2-year schools and vocational schools includes community colleges that have reasonable value, but they may not be the best choice if a student doesn’t plan to stay in the area. The list of online schools does include, Excelsior College, New York state’s college for working adults completing their degrees. Other schools on the online list, however, are particularly troubling (Colorado Technical University and American Intercontinental University, for example). Rather than being best for veterans, some are considered bad actors by organizations looking out for veterans and other consumers. To muddy the waters even more, Military Times accepts advertisements from subprime schools that have the money to post half-page ads in the magazine.
Subprime Colleges
By subprime college, I am referring to schools that have:
- high tuition in relation to community colleges,
- low graduation rates, and
- low student loan repayment rates*
Sunken Investments
If you have found that the school you went to while in the military is a “bottom of the barrel” college, you have lots of research to do before using your GI Bill benefits. Think twice about investing your GI Bill money into a school that will not lead to gainful employment, even if that means starting over if you have to. You should also contact VA and Veterans Education Success to register any complaints about a school you have attended.
*Unfortunately for consumers, student loan repayment rate has been removed from the new College Scorecard.
Helpful Links
Warrior-Scholar (college preparatory boot camps)
Service2School (free application counseling)
Veteran Mentor Network on LinkedIn
Veterans Education Success (tips in enrolling for college)
8 tips to help vets pick the right college (Military Times)
Thursday, December 26, 2019
State By State Changes in College Enrollment (National Student Clearinghouse, 2011 and 2019)
State F2011 F2019 %Loss/Gain
AK 35,473 22,268 -37.2
NM 144,202 110,427 -33.4
MI 633,576 482,058 -24.0
IL 758,074 583,960 -23.0
HI 65,638 50,697 -22.7
OR 253,403 198,518 -21.6
MO 411,508 323,361 -21.4
AR 178,628 143,895 -19.4
WV 169,510 137,665 -18.7
MT 55,945 45,492 -18.7
MN 420,655 347,114 - 17.5
WI 350,803 295,341 -15.8
OK 211,151 178,411 -15.5
PA 755,158 639,366 -15.4
WY 32,729 27,664 -15.4
IN 402,850 342,615 -15.0
IA 221,732 190,209 -14.2
OH 689,862 593,527 -14.0
MD 387,487 334,422 -13.7
LA 261,494 225,868 -13.6
FL 1,077,332 933,180 -13.3
ND 56,359 48,966 -13.1
KY 277,688 243,299 -12.4
NY 1,191,463 1,044,338 -12.3
KS 203,748 178,623 -12.3
VT 43,201 38,207 -11.5
NE 141,944 127,113 -11.4
CO 320,626 287,781 -11.2
NJ 421,196 374,348 -11.1
MA 477,423 427,958 -10.4
ME 70,051 63,259 -9.7
MS 180,310 163,966 -9.1
DC 77,652 70,717 -9.0
VA 529,007 483,686 -8.6
WA 343,300 314,380 -8.4
SC 246,121 230,256 -6.4
NC 555,392 524,679 -5.5
RI 72,722 68,739 -5.4
TN 320,979 304,279 -5.2
CT 193,381 183,981 -4.9
CA 2,559,423 2,466,867 -3.6
AL 294,853 286,421 -2.9
NV 112,736 110,338 -2.1
GA 525,734 518,826 -1.3
DE 56,103 56,388 +0.0
SD 45,398 46,019 +1.4
ID 96,649 100,270 +3.7
TX 1,431,062 1,490,953 +4.2
AZ* 427,789 456,453 +6.7
UT* 254,731 361,652 +42.0
Related link: Enrollment declines, campus closings, economic losses and the hollowing out of America
Related link: National Student Clearinghouse, College Enrollment, Fall 2019.
https://nscresearchcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/CTEE_Report_Fall_2019.pdf
Saturday, December 7, 2019
The Higher Education Assembly Line
I'm conducting a study of Taylorism (aka The "Scientific Management of Work") in online higher education. If you are in the education business, I would appreciate your input, both positive and critical.
According to Maduakolam Ireh, "scientific management (in the 19th century and beyond) eliminated the need for skilled labor by delegating each employee one simple task to repeat over and over. Although this method increased the productivity of factories, it stripped employees their freedom to choose their work, as well as how it should be done." While it may be an exaggeration that academic work is like factory work, trends in US higher education point to reduced autonomy, job deskilling, and greater demands to produce more work in less time.
In online higher education, a small number of full-time instructors act as managers, with part-timers (euphemistically called associate professors) facilitating classes--with little input regarding content. Academic work is deskilled: educational content is created on an assembly line that includes instructional designers, copy editors, finishers, and quality assurance specialists who may all be precarious 1099 workers.
Associate faculty are kept in the dark about what's happening. According to one person on thelayoff.com, "...when you're let go don't expect any sort of phone call. One day you'll go to login to the portal and it will say your credentials are invalid. You'd do what any normal person will do and call technical support. Support will awkwardly tell you'll to contact your supervisor to regain access. So you'll call them and if you're lucky enough that your supervisor wasn't also let go in the most recent round of cuts then they'll give you a call in a few days to let you know the bad news."
Is anything lost in the deskilling and marginalization of academic labor?Unlike an assembly line, however, academic laborers in online higher education may never see each other or talk to each other, creating an atmosphere of alienation, especially among adjunct instructors. Feedback is created by student surveys and by crucial numbers such as retention rate, but not necessarily skill attainment or gainful employment.
Management signals workers an organization's true values and priorities. What values and priorities are online managers signalizing to their faculty? And how does this play out in the classroom and in decisions by faculty and staff?
"They had us deactivate an associate faculty because she was doing what was right: reporting a student for plagiarizing. One of the associate deans didn’t like that she held a standard so she told them to deactivate her." -- Online college program chair
"I was increasingly asked to pass students who did not earn the grade. As a result I was put into a "professional development" program which resulted in my leaving the university. I could no longer work for a school that has become a diploma mill." --Online instructorIt amazes me how online higher education has been able to reduce the number of full-time instructors to almost nothing, and with few complaints from consumers, educators, or teachers unions.
Have professors becoming obsolete, especially with colleges that serve working adults?The small number of full-time instructors at regionally accredited online colleges is astounding:
- Colorado State University Global has 34 full-time instructors for 12,000 students.
- Ashford University has 194 full-time instructors for about 35,000 students.
- University of Maryland Global has 193 full-time instructors for 60,000 students.
- Colorado Technical University has 59 full-time instructors for 26,000 students.
- Devry University online has 53 full-time instructors for about 17,000 students.
- South University has 0 full-time instructors for more than 6000 students
- American Intercontinental University has 51 full-timers for about 8,700 students.
- Southern New Hampshire University has 164 full-time instructors for 104,000 students.
- Walden University has 206 full-time instructors for more than 50,000 students.
- Capella University has 216 full-time instructors for about 38,000 students.
- Liberty University has 1072 full-timers for more than 85,000 students.
- University of Phoenix has 70 full-time instructors for 96,000 students.
- Purdue University Global has 346 full-time instructors for 38,000 students.
What's your take on the online higher education assembly line? And what numbers do you find important?

