From Promise to Predicament: The Fed’s View of Higher Education Fifteen years of data, warnings, and contradictions about America’s student debt crisis.

Over the past fifteen years, the Federal Reserve System has quietly amassed one of the most extensive and consistent bodies of research on student loan debt in the United States. Across its twelve regional banks and the Board of Governors in Washington, the Fed has produced a series of studies that track not just the growth of borrowing, but its unequal burden across race, class, institution type, and geography. The findings confirm what many borrowers already know: the promise of higher education increasingly comes with financial risk, social inequality, and personal hardship.

The Fed's research consistently shows that student loan debt limits economic mobility. It lowers homeownership rates, delays marriage and family formation, and contributes to intergenerational poverty—especially among first-generation college students, borrowers of color, and those who attended for-profit or low-value institutions. While college graduates generally earn more over a lifetime than non-graduates, the costs of attendance—and the debt needed to finance it—often erode that advantage.

The New York Fed was among the first to quantify the scale of the crisis. A 2014 staff report revealed the steep growth in borrowing and the rising rates of delinquency. Follow-up research found that students who failed to complete degrees were the most likely to default. Even among those who did graduate, the risks varied widely depending on the school attended. For-profit college students, in particular, had disproportionately poor outcomes—higher debt levels, higher unemployment, and lower earnings.

In New England, the Boston Fed found that despite the region’s high tuition costs, default rates were relatively low. Researchers attributed this to a strong labor market and high levels of family support. But the same studies also showed that borrowers from disadvantaged backgrounds were still more likely to struggle with repayment, even in affluent states.

More recent work from the Federal Reserve Board's Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED) adds further evidence that the student loan crisis is uneven. Black and Latino borrowers were more likely to attend institutions with poor outcomes and were more likely to fall behind on payments after the federal pause ended in 2023. Older Americans, including many Parent PLUS borrowers and returning students, also experienced sharp declines in credit scores when payments resumed.

Other Fed branches have asked deeper structural questions. The Richmond Fed in 2022 examined whether increases in federal loan limits contributed to tuition inflation. Their findings were nuanced: while tuition sometimes rose in tandem with expanded loan access, the relationship was inconsistent and depended heavily on institutional behavior. Meanwhile, the Chicago Fed found that families who lost wealth during the Great Recession relied more heavily on student loans, underscoring that borrowing is often a symptom of broader economic vulnerability, not just tuition hikes.

There are tensions among these findings. Some studies emphasize the long-term value of a college degree, arguing that despite the debt, graduates still fare better than non-graduates. Others focus on the risks—especially for those who never finish or who attend predatory institutions. Some research supports targeted loan forgiveness for the most vulnerable; others point to the need for broader systemic reforms to financing, accountability, and access.

What is clear across all these studies is that the federal student loan system, once designed to expand opportunity, now plays a major role in reproducing inequality. Without deeper changes to how higher education is funded and delivered, student loan debt will continue to act as a drag on economic growth and a burden on the middle and working classes.

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Chart: Median Student Loan Balances by Degree Status and Institution Type
(Based on data from the Federal Reserve Board’s SHED, 2024)

Degree Completed     | Institution Type     | Median Balance
---------------------|----------------------|-----------------
No Degree            | For-Profit College   | $15,700
Associate’s Degree   | Community College    | $12,400
Bachelor’s Degree    | Public University    | $20,200
Bachelor’s Degree    | Private Nonprofit    | $26,000
Graduate Degree      | Public University    | $35,000
Graduate Degree      | Private Nonprofit    | $49,000

This chart highlights how both degree completion and institution type shape borrowing outcomes. Borrowers with no degree, particularly those who attended for-profit colleges, face high risk with lower earning potential. In contrast, graduate students from private institutions carry the highest debt loads, but typically with greater long-term income.

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Sources:

• Federal Reserve Board, Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (2014–2024)

• New York Federal Reserve, Student Loan Borrowing and Repayment Behavior (2014, 2019)

• Boston Federal Reserve, Student Loan Debt and Economic Outcomes in New England (2014, 2016)

• Richmond Federal Reserve, Do Federal Student Loans Drive Tuition? (2022)

• Chicago Federal Reserve, The Shadow of the Great Recession and Student Loan Burden (2024)

• St. Louis Federal Reserve, Students Are Borrowing Too Much—or Too Little (2019)