Wednesday, May 30, 2018

NCES Projecting Stagnant College Enrollment Numbers

The National Center for Education Statistics is moderating its perspective on US higher education enrollment.

Earlier NCES reports projected college enrollment to grow to more than 22 million students by 2023.

In the Department of Education's The Condition of Education 2018 report, NCES projects enrollment to recover to 17.4 million undergraduate students by 2027, after six consecutive years of losses.


But even these more moderate numbers may be too rosy if NCES projections are already off from 2017 and the first half of 2018, as National Student Clearinghouse numbers would suggest.

Unless there are major policy changes at the federal, state, and local levels, it's not impossible to project a more dismal picture. These positive changes would need to address social inequality in the US, including the savage inequalities in K-12 education and college affordability for working-class families.

Wednesday, May 2, 2018

College Meltdown: State By State Changes

The National Student Clearinghouse has provided College Meltdown with state by state
changes in college enrollment from Fall 2011 to Fall 2017. 

The chart is listed in order of percentage loss or gain.  New Mexico, Hawaii, Illinois,
Michigan, and Alaska were hardest hit.  Twenty two states experienced losses of 10 percent
or more.  

Six states increased their enrollment from 2011 to 2017.  New Hampshire and Utah, the
two largest gainers, increased their enrollment by having a large online presence (Southern
New Hampshire University and BYU online).  
State Change % Change N Fall 2017 Fall 2011
Multi-State Institutions -53% -724,715 645,035 1,369,750
New Mexico -20% -28,468 115,734 144,202
Hawaii -19% -12,700 52,938 65,638
Illinois -19% -141,554 616,520 758,074
Michigan -19% -117,285 516,291 633,576
Alaska -17% -5,922 29,551 35,473
Oregon -17% -42,139 211,264 253,403
Missouri -16% -64,193 347,315 411,508
Louisiana -15% -38,854 222,640 261,494
West Virginia -15% -24,793 144,717 169,510
Montana -15% -8,134 47,811 55,945
Indiana -14% -57,710 345,140 402,850
Kentucky -14% -38,766 238,922 277,688
Minnesota -14% -58,239 362,416 420,655
Arkansas -13% -23,649 154,979 178,628
Ohio -13% -87,250 602,612 689,862
Wisconsin -12% -43,238 307,565 350,803
Oklahoma -11% -23,511 187,640 211,151
Maryland -11% -40,986 346,501 387,487
Wyoming -10% -3,396 29,333 32,729
Nebraska -10% -14,418 127,526 141,944
Pennsylvania -10% -72,163 682,995 755,158
North Dakota -9% -5,275 51,084 56,359
Iowa -9% -20,247 201,485 221,732
New Jersey -9% -37,731 383,465 421,196
Colorado -9% -28,640 291,986 320,626
Virginia -8% -44,484 484,523 529,007
New York -8% -98,904 1,092,559 1,191,463
Mississippi -8% -14,305 166,005 180,310
Washington -8% -27,148 316,152 343,300
Vermont -7% -3,177 40,024 43,201
Florida -7% -74,318 1,003,014 1,077,332
Massachusetts -7% -32,753 444,670 477,423
Maine -7% -4,690 65,361 70,051
Georgia -6% -33,836 491,898 525,734
Tennessee -6% -20,642 300,337 320,979
North Carolina -6% -32,642 522,750 555,392
Kansas -5% -10,015 193,733 203,748
District of Columbia -5% -3,727 73,925 77,652
Rhode Island -4% -3,179 69,543 72,722
South Carolina -4% -9,339 236,782 246,121
Connecticut -3% -6,257 187,124 193,381
Nevada -2% -2,651 110,085 112,736
California -2% -43,872 2,515,551 2,559,423
Alabama -1% -4,149 290,704 294,853
Delaware 0% -177 55,926 56,103
South Dakota 3% 1,200 46,598 45,398
Texas 4% 58,803 1,489,865 1,431,062
Idaho 4% 4,202 100,851 96,649
Arizona 6% 23,750 451,539 427,789
Utah* 25% 63,108 317,839 254,731
New Hampshire* 89% 69,661 147,773 78,112
*Growth driven by institutions with large online programs. Students may not be physically
located within the state.