How Demographics Could Elevate the Political Stakes of Student Loan Debt in 2028 and Beyond

Student loan debt has been a defining economic and political issue in the United States for over a decade. As of 2025, Americans owe nearly $1.8 trillion in student loans, with roughly 42–45 million borrowers carrying federal debt and average balances exceeding $39,000 per borrower. Delinquency rates have surged since repayment reporting resumed, with more than one in five borrowers behind on payments, and millions at risk of default. These financial pressures are now rippling through credit markets and household budgets, especially for younger, middle-aged, and lower-income borrowers. While student debt already garners public attention, shifting demographic trends and mounting economic pressures promise to reshape its political weight in the coming years unless comprehensive changes are enacted.

The largest cohort of student borrowers today consists of Millennials and older members of Generation Z, many aged between 25 and 45. These are prime years for political engagement, as individuals are more likely to vote, form households, buy homes, and shape community priorities. In 2028, this group will be even more politically active, navigating careers, families, and fiscal pressures that student debt directly influences. As borrowers age into life stages where financial stability becomes paramount, their appetite for political solutions — including forgiveness, refinancing, and more manageable repayment structures — is likely to intensify.

Student loan debt also affects communities differently. Black and Latinx borrowers are disproportionately burdened, with Black borrowers often owing more and struggling with repayment longer due to structural inequities in income and wealth. These disparities will continue to grow unless systemic reforms address not just debt levels but the economic systems that compound them over time. Communities of color are projected to constitute a larger share of the eligible electorate by 2030, and when a disproportionate share of voters in a given demographic faces an issue like unsustainable debt, it naturally becomes central to their political priorities and shapes the platforms of candidates seeking their support.

Older Americans are impacted by student loan dynamics not necessarily as borrowers themselves, but as co-signers, parents, or caregivers helping children or grandchildren manage debt. With the U.S. population aging, the 65+ age group is expected to grow as a portion of the electorate, and those over 80 will increasingly drive Medicaid and healthcare costs, adding strain to federal and state budgets. Older voters tend to vote at higher rates than younger voters, and as more families find multigenerational debt obligations weighing on retirement savings, caregiving responsibilities, and healthcare needs, the political urgency around student loan reform may expand beyond traditional “student” demographics and into older voters’ policy concerns.

Geographic and economic shifts also shape the political significance of student debt. States with high education costs, and correspondingly high average debt loads, may see student loan issues become central to local and statewide elections. Migration patterns bringing younger, more diverse populations to new regions — including parts of the South and Midwest — will likely influence electoral alignments and policy debates in competitive districts. Meanwhile, national concerns such as the growing federal debt, ongoing military engagements abroad, and rising costs associated with healthcare for an aging population amplify the stakes, creating competing pressures on policymakers who must balance debt relief against broader fiscal challenges.

Economic inequality further complicates the picture. The concentration of wealth among the richest Americans continues to grow, giving this group greater political influence and shaping policy priorities in ways that often conflict with the needs of student borrowers and middle-class families. As wealth and power accumulate at the top, voters carrying student debt may increasingly perceive systemic unfairness, heightening the political salience of debt relief and broader structural reforms. The interaction of these factors — persistent debt, rising national obligations, ongoing conflict, and economic inequality — suggests that student loans will remain intertwined with larger national debates over fiscal responsibility, social safety nets, and the distribution of economic power.

Student loan debt has already become a wedge issue in national politics, especially within Democratic primaries. The demographic shifts of the late 2020s, rising diversity, coupled economic pressures, and growing awareness of wealth inequality could make it a central concern for a broader slice of the electorate. Policymakers who ignore student debt risk alienating key voter blocs: younger voters whose turnout matters in swing states, communities of color with growing electoral influence, and middle-class families navigating financial strain alongside broader economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

The economic impact of outstanding student loan debt, from delayed homeownership to depressed small business formation, carries demographic implications that feed back into the political sphere. If current trends continue, the cost of inaction will not just be political but economic, affecting national growth rates, tax revenue, social programs, and inequality metrics that in turn shape voter sentiment and policy priorities.

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Student Debt and the Shifting Political Landscape

By 2028 and into the 2030s, demographic change is poised to elevate student loan debt from a pressing public concern to a core political battleground unless policymakers act proactively. With more borrowers entering key voting blocs, disproportionate impacts across racial and economic lines, and economic consequences rippling through communities of all ages, student loan debt is more than a financial issue: it is a demographic reality shaping the future of American politics.

Sadly, the Higher Education Inquirer will not be around to cover these developments as they unfold. HEI has made predictions about student debt and its political consequences in the past, and while nothing is set in stone, the combination of rising demographics, persistent economic inequality, the mounting national debt, ongoing war-related obligations, and pressures from an aging population does not paint a promising picture. Without major policy reforms — such as targeted debt relief, changes to repayment systems, or broader higher education financing reforms — the political salience of student debt is likely to intensify, influencing campaigns, elections, and national discourse for years to come.

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Sources

Education Data Initiative, “Student Loan Debt Statistics 2025,” educationdata.org
TransUnion, “May 2025 Student Loan Update,” newsroom.transunion.com
Forbes, “Student Loans for 64 Million Borrowers Are Heading Toward a Dangerous Cliff,” forbes.com
College Board, “Trends in College Pricing and Student Aid 2025,” research.collegeboard.org
LendingTree, “Student Loan Debt Statistics by State,” lendingtree.com
NerdWallet, “Student Loan Debt Statistics 2025,” nerdwallet.com

Trump’s Education Department is Closing. And Also Starting A Long Rulemaking Process. (David Halperin)

Although President Donald J. Trump last month signed an executive order directing Secretary of Education Linda McMahon “to the maximum extent appropriate and permitted by law, take all necessary steps to facilitate the closure of the Department of Education,” and although DOGE efforts and layoffs have cut the Department staff by half, the Department announced today that it will embark on an extensive round of meetings to draft new regulations governing student financial aid.

Unlike most federal agencies, the Department is generally required to engage in an elaborate process called negotiated rulemaking before it can issue or cancel regulations. This has meant — on issues from campus sexual assault to performance standards guarding against predatory college abuses — years of public hearings, formal convenings of rulemaking panels, written public comments and meetings on draft regulations, and more. It also has produced a decades-long ping pong match of final regulations made by one party and overwritten by the other, from the Obama to Trump I to Biden, followed by years of court challenges.

The first Trump administration staffed its higher education jobs with former executives of predatory for-profit colleges, and they eliminated both regulations and enforcement efforts aimed at protecting students and holding predatory schools accountable.

Today’s notice, signed by James P. Bergeron, Acting Under Secretary of Education, says the first round of Trump II negotiated rulemaking will likely include consideration of Public Service Loan Forgiveness and other loan repayment programs “or other topics that would streamline current federal student financial assistance programs.”

Other language in the notice suggests the Department may go deep, perhaps working to cancel the Biden rules creating performance standards for for-profit and career college programs (the gainful employment rule) and providing debt relief for students scammed by their colleges and government recoupment of funds from dishonest schools (the borrower defense rule). The notice opines that current regulations “may be inhibiting innovation and contributing to rising college costs” and that it wants to “streamline” the rules “while maintaining or improving program integrity and institutional quality.” “Innovation,” while a great thing for education when it can really happen, has been a buzzword used by the for-profit college industry to fight against rules aimed at protecting against predatory programs. Gutting the Biden rules would increase the vulnerability of both students and taxpayers to billions in waste, fraud, and abuse from deceptive, poor quality schools — even though the stated purpose of DOGE is to halt government excess.

When pro-student Democratic members of the House of Representatives  held a press conference outside the Department headquarters yesterday after they met with McMahon to discuss such concerns, she followed them. But she quickly fled when Rep. Mark Takano (D-CA) asked her when she would shut down the building.

The Department’s rulemaking process begins with public hearings on April 29 and May 1, the first in-person at Department headquarters and the second online. Advocates for students and taxpayers should register to speak and show up to make their voices heard.

[Editor's note: This article originally appeared on Republic Report.]

 

Biden-Harris Administration Announces Final Student Loan Forgiveness and Borrower Assistance Actions (US Department of Education)

Total Approved Student Debt Relief Reached Almost $189 Billion for 5.3 Million Borrowers

The Biden-Harris Administration today announced its final round of student loan forgiveness, approving more than $600 million for 4,550 borrowers through the Income-Based Repayment (IBR) Plan and 4,100 individual borrower defense approvals. The Administration leaves office having approved a cumulative $188.8 billion in forgiveness for 5.3 million borrowers across 33 executive actions. The U.S. Department of Education (Department) today also announced that it has completed the income-driven repayment payment count adjustment and that borrowers will now be able to see their income-driven repayment counters when they log into their accounts on StudentAid.gov. Finally, the Department took additional actions that will allow students who attended certain schools that have since closed to qualify for student loan discharges. 

“Four years ago, President Biden made a promise to fix a broken student loan system. We rolled up our sleeves and, together, we fixed existing programs that had failed to deliver the relief they promised, took bold action on behalf of borrowers who had been cheated by their institutions, and brought financial breathing room to hardworking Americans—including public servants and borrowers with disabilities. Thanks to our relentless, unapologetic efforts, millions of Americans are approved for student loan forgiveness,” said U.S. Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona. “I’m incredibly proud of the Biden-Harris Administration’s historic achievements in making the life-changing potential of higher education more affordable and accessible for more people.” 

From Day One the Biden-Harris Administration took steps to rethink, restore, and revitalize targeted relief programs that entitle borrowers to relief under the Higher Education Act but that failed to live up to their promises. Through a combination of executive actions and regulatory improvements, the Biden-Harris Administration produced the following results for borrowers: 

Fixed longstanding problems with Income-Driven Repayment (IDR). The Administration has approved 1.45 million borrowers for $57.1 billion in loan relief, including $600 million for 4,550 borrowers announced today for IBR forgiveness. 

IDR plans help keep payments manageable for borrowers and have provided a path to forgiveness after an extended period. These plans started in the early 1990s, but prior to the Biden-Harris Administration taking office, just 50 borrowers had ever had their loans forgiven. The Administration corrected longstanding failures to accurately track borrower progress toward forgiveness and addressed past instances of forbearance steering whereby servicers inappropriately advised borrowers to postpone payments for extended periods of time. These totals also include borrowers who received forgiveness under the Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) plan prior to court orders halting forgiveness under the SAVE plan. 

Today, the Department also announced the completion of the IDR payment count adjustment, correcting eligible payment counts. While the payment count adjustment is now complete, borrowers who were affected by certain servicer transitions in 2024 may see one or two additional months credited in the coming weeks. The Department is also launching the ability for borrowers to track their IDR progress on StudentAid.gov. Borrowers can now log in to their accounts and see their total IDR payment count and a month-by-month breakdown of progress.   

Restored the promise of Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF). The Administration has approved 1,069,000 borrowers for $78.5 billion in forgiveness.  

The PSLF Program provides critical support to teachers, service members, social workers, and others engaged in public service. But prior to this Administration taking office, just 7,000 borrowers had received forgiveness and the overwhelming majority of borrowers who applied had their applications denied. The Biden-Harris Administration fixed this program by pursuing regulatory improvements, correcting long-standing issues with tracking progress toward forgiveness and misuse of forbearances, and implementing the limited PSLF waiver to avoid harm from the pandemic. 

Automated discharges and simplified eligibility criteria for borrowers with a total and permanent disability. The Administration has approved 633,000 borrowers for $18.7 billion in loan relief. 

Borrowers who are totally and permanently disabled may be eligible for a total and permanent disability (TPD) discharge. The Biden-Harris Administration changed regulations to automatically forgive loans for eligible borrowers based upon a data match with the Social Security Administration (SSA). This helped hundreds of thousands of borrowers who were eligible for relief but hadn’t managed to navigate paperwork requirements. The Department also made it easier for borrowers to qualify for relief based upon SSA determinations, made it easier to complete the TPD application, and eliminated provisions that had caused many borrowers to have their loans reinstated. 

Delivered long-awaited help to borrowers ripped off by their institutions, whose schools closed, or through related court settlements. The Administration has approved just under 2 million borrowers for $34.5 billion in loan relief.  

For years, students had sought relief from the Department through borrower defense to repayment—a provision that allows borrowers to have their loans forgiven if their college engaged in misconduct related to the borrowers’ loans. The Department delivered long-awaited relief to borrowers who attended some of the most notoriously predatory institutions to ever participate in the federal financial aid programs. This included approving for discharge all remaining outstanding loans from Corinthian Colleges, as well as group discharges for ITT Technical Institute, the Art Institutes, Westwood College, Ashford University, and others. The Department also settled a long-running class action lawsuit stemming from allegations of inaction and the issuance of form denials, allowing it to begin the first sustained denials of non-meritorious claims. 

Today, the Department also approved 4,100 additional individual borrower defense applications for borrowers who attended DeVry University, based upon findings announced in February 2022.  

“For decades, the federal government promised to help people who couldn’t afford their student loans because they were in public service, had disabilities, were cheated by their college, or who had completed decades of payments. But it rarely kept those promises until now,” said U.S. Under Secretary of Education James Kvaal. “These permanent reforms have already helped more 5 million borrowers, and many more borrowers will continue to benefit.” 

The table below compares the progress made by the Biden-Harris Administration in these key discharge areas compared to other administrations. 

	Borrowers approved for forgiveness
	Prior Administrations	Biden-Harris Administration
Borrower Defense (Since 2015)	53,500	1,767,000*
Public Service Loan Forgiveness (Since 2017)	7,000	1,069,000
Income-Driven Repayment (all-time)	50	1,454,000
Total and Permanent Disability (Since 2017)	604,000	633,000

* Includes 107,000 borrowers and $1.25 billion captured by an extension of the closed-school lookback window at ITT Technical Institute.  

Additional actions related to closed school discharges 

The Department today also announced additional actions that will make more borrowers eligible for a closed school loan discharge. Generally, a borrower qualifies for a closed school discharge if they did not complete their program and were either still enrolled when the school closed or left without graduating within 120 days before it closed. . However, the Department has determined that several schools closed under exceptional circumstances that merit allowing borrowers who did complete and were enrolled in the school more than 120 days prior to the closure to qualify for a closed school discharge. justify extending the look-back window beyond the applicable 120 or 180 days--allowing additional borrowers to qualify for a closed school discharge. Generally, eligible borrowers will have to apply for these discharges, but the Secretary has directed Federal Student Aid to make borrowers aware of their eligibility, and to pursue automatic discharges for those affected by closures that took place between 2013 and 2020 and who did not enroll elsewhere within three years of their school closing. 

These adjusted look-back windows are: 

• To May 6, 2015, for all campuses owned at the time by the Career Education Corporation (CEC), which have since closed. That is the day CEC announced it would close or sell all campuses except for two brands. This affected the Art Institutes, Le Cordon Bleu, Brooks Institute, Missouri College, Briarcliffe College, and Sanford-Brown. 
• To December 16, 2016, for campuses owned by the Education Corporation of America (ECA) on that date that closed. ECA operated Virginia College, Brightwood College, EcoTech, and Golf Academies and started on the path to closure after its accreditation agency lost federal recognition and ECA could not obtain accreditation elsewhere. 
• To October 17, 2017 for all campuses owned or sold on that date by the Education Management Corporation (EDMC) and that later closed. That is the day EDMC sold substantially all of its assets to Dream Center Educational Holdings. The decision affects borrowers who attended the Art Institutes, including the Miami International University of Art & Design and Argosy University.  
• To April 23, 2021, for Bay State College. That is the day this Massachusetts-based college began to face significant accreditation challenges, which eventually led to the school losing accreditation and closing in August 2023. 

Borrowers who want more information about closed school discharge, including how to apply, can visit StudentAid.gov/closedschool. 

A state-by-state breakdown of various forms of student debt relief approved by the Biden-Harris Administration is available here.

Maximus AidVantage Contracts with the US Department of Education Publicly Available

The Higher Education Inquirer has received all the current contracts between the US Department of Education and Maximus/AidVantage through a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request. Maximus serves millions of student loan debtors and has faced increased scrutiny (and loss of revenues) for not fulfilling their duties on time. 

The FOIA response (23-01436-F) consists of a zip file of 998 pages in 5 separate files. HEI is sharing this information with any news outlet or organization for free, however we would appreciate an acknowledgement of the source. 

We have already reached out to a number of organizations, including the Student Borrower Protection Center, the Debt Collective, the Project on Predatory Lending, the NY Times, ProPublica, and Democracy Now!  We have also posted this article at the r/BorrowerDefense subreddit. 

Student Stories: Understanding the Human Impact of For-profit Colleges (Project on Predatory Student Lending)

For decades, the predatory for-profit college industry has exploited the promise of higher education, at the expense of students who are trying to build a better life.  

These are their stories. Read a letter from 5,721 student borrowers who were the victims of fraud and misconduct here sent to members of Congress, the Department of Education, and White House officials on November 22, 2024.

Read all of the stories here. 

 

 

Related link:

List of Schools with Strong Indicators of Misconduct, Evidence for Borrower Defense Claims