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Friday, February 9, 2024

The Student Loan Mess Updated: Debt as a Form of Social Control and Political Action

[Editor's note: The FY 2023 FSA Annual Report is here.]

In 2014, the father-son team of Joel Best and Eric Best published The Student Loan Mess: How Good Intentions Created a Trillion Dollar Problem. Their argument was that rising student loan debt posed a major social and economic problem in the United States, exceeding $1 trillion at the time of publication (predicted to reach $2 trillion by 2020). This "mess" resulted from a series of well-intentioned but flawed policies that focused on different aspects of the issue in isolation, ultimately creating unintended consequences.

Key Points of the 2014 book:

History of Federal Involvement: The book explored the evolution of federal student loan programs, highlighting how each policy change created new problems while attempting to address the previous ones.

Cost of College: Rising tuition fees along with readily available loans fueled the debt crisis, as students borrowed more to cope with increasing costs.

Repayment Challenges: The authors delved into the difficulties graduates face repaying their loans, including high interest rates, complex repayment plans, and limited income mobility.

Societal Impacts: The book examined the broader societal consequences of student loan debt, such as delayed homeownership, reduced entrepreneurship, and increased economic inequality.

Beyond the Mess: While acknowledging the complexity of the issue, the authors discussed potential solutions, including loan forgiveness programs, income-based repayment plans, and increased government regulation of for-profit colleges.

Overall, "The Student Loan Mess" provided a critical historical analysis of the factors contributing to the crisis and suggested pathways towards a more sustainable system of higher education financing.

Expansion of Federal Loan Programs (1960s-1990s):

The creation of federal loan programs initially aimed to increase access to higher education.

This led to rising tuition costs as universities saw guaranteed funding, with less pressure to remain affordable.

Loan eligibility expanded, encouraging more borrowing even without clear career prospects for graduates.

Cost Explosion and Predatory Lending (1990s-2000s):

College costs skyrocketed due to various factors, including decreased state funding and increased administrative spending.

Loan limits were raised, further fueling the debt increase.

Private lenders entered the market, offering aggressive marketing and deceptive practices, targeting vulnerable students.

Recession and Repayment Struggles (2008-present):

The Great Recession exacerbated loan burdens as graduates faced limited job opportunities and stagnant wages.

Complex repayment plans and high interest rates created a challenging landscape for borrowers.

The rise of for-profit colleges further complicated the issue, often saddling students with debt for degrees with low earning potential.

Growing Awareness, Advocacy, and Reform (2010s-present):

Public awareness of the student loan crisis grew, leading to increased advocacy and demands for reform.

Issues like predatory lending, debt forgiveness, and income-based repayment gained traction.

In 2010, the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act made a significant change to the federal student loan system. Previously, the government guaranteed private loans, meaning it reimbursed lenders if borrowers defaulted. In turn, lenders received subsidies for participating. The Act ended these subsidies for private lenders, resulting in over $60 billion saved that could be reinvested in student aid programs.

Debates on the role of government and private lenders in financing higher education continued.

Next Chapters?

Since 2014, almost ten years after the Student Loan Mess was published, several major developments have unfolded concerning student loan debt:

Growth and Persistence:

Debt continues to climb: While the growth rate has slowed somewhat, outstanding student loan debt has surpassed $1.7 trillion and remains a significant burden for millions of borrowers.

Racial and socioeconomic disparities persist: African American and Latinx borrowers disproportionately hold a higher amount of debt compared to white borrowers, exacerbating economic inequalities.

Policy Changes:

https://x.com/The Biden-Harris administration has provided $136.6 billion in debt relief.

Expansion of income-driven repayment plans: Options like Income-Based Repayment (IBR) and Pay As You Earn (PAYE) have been expanded, allowing borrowers to adjust their monthly payments based on income.

Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) challenges: Legal uncertainties and administrative backlogs have plagued PSLF, leaving many public servants struggling to qualify for loan forgiveness.

Temporary pandemic relief: During the COVID-19 pandemic, federal student loan payments were paused and interest rates set to 0%. Payments resumed in 2023.

Debt cancellation debates: Proposals for broad-based student loan forgiveness have gained traction, with several Democratic lawmakers pushing for different cancellation amounts. However, these proposals have faced legal and political hurdles. In 2023, the 9th Circuit Court ruled in favor of mass cancellation of loans from predatory for-profit colleges (Sweet v Cardona). A few months later, the US Supreme Court struck down President Biden's plan for debt relief to more than 30 million Americans.

Increased attention to for-profit colleges and online program managers: Scrutiny of predatory practices and low graduate outcomes at for-profit institutions has intensified. Gainful employment rules have been reestablished, but whether they will be enforced is in question.

Looking forward:

The future of student loan debt remains uncertain. Key questions include:

Will broad-based loan forgiveness materialize?

Can income-driven repayment plans be made more effective?

How will future administrations address affordability and access to higher education?

What role will the private sector play in financing higher education?

How will declining enrollment numbers and skepticism about the value of higher education affect student loan debt and debt relief?

Will higher ed institutions be held accountable for the debt of their former students and alumni?

Can higher education reduce consumer costs and provide value to consumers and communities at the same time?

How will student loan debt affect disability, retirement, and life expectancy among long-term debtors?

Policy Drivers:

Economic factors: A strong economy could increase government revenue, potentially enabling broader debt forgiveness or increased funding for higher education access initiatives. Conversely, an economic downturn could make policy interventions more challenging.

Elections and political pressure: Public opinion and the results of future elections will influence the political will for reform. Continued activism and pressure from advocacy groups could sway policy decisions.

Legal challenges and court rulings: Lawsuits over debt cancellation programs and loan servicer practices could impact the legal landscape and shape future policy options.

Private sector involvement: Developments in the private student loan market and potential regulations of lending practices could affect access to credit and repayment options.

Consumer Decisions:

Debt burden and economic outlook: The level of outstanding debt and future job prospects will significantly influence borrower behavior. Increased debt loads could incentivize riskier repayment strategies or delaying major life decisions like homeownership.

Awareness and financial literacy: Improved understanding of loan terms, repayment options, and alternative financing methods could empower borrowers to make informed decisions.

Government programs and incentives: Changes to income-driven repayment plans, loan forgiveness programs, and other government initiatives will directly impact consumer choices about managing their debt.

Emerging Trends:

Alternative financing models: Innovations like income-share agreements and skills-based financing could disrupt traditional loan structures and offer new options for students.

Technology and automation: Increased use of technology to streamline loan management and repayment could improve efficiency and transparency.

Focus on affordability and value: As concerns about the value proposition of higher education grow, there might be a shift towards emphasizing affordable options and skills-based learning.

How does student loan debt affect the lives of Americans?

Student loan debt has a profound impact on the lives of millions of Americans in various ways, affecting not just their finances but also their major life decisions and overall well-being. Here's a breakdown of some key areas:

Financial Impact:

Burden of debt: The average graduate has over $40,000 in student loan debt, significantly impacting their monthly budget and disposable income. This can limit savings for retirement, emergencies, and major purchases like a house.

Lower credit scores: Missed payments or delinquencies can negatively affect credit scores, hindering access to future loans and increasing interest rates on other forms of credit.

Delayed milestones: High debt burdens may cause individuals to delay major life milestones like buying a home, getting married, starting a family, or pursuing further education due to financial constraints.

Career Choices:

Job dissatisfaction: To make loan payments, some graduates might feel pressured to stay in high-paying but unfulfilling jobs, sacrificing career satisfaction for financial stability.

Entrepreneurial risk: The fear of financial failure due to debt may discourage individuals from pursuing entrepreneurial ventures, hindering innovation and economic growth.

Limited career mobility: Debt may lock individuals into specific career paths based on earning potential, restricting their ability to pursue desired career changes.

Mental and Emotional Wellbeing:

Stress and anxiety: The constant pressure of debt repayment can lead to significant stress and anxiety, impacting mental and emotional well-being.

Lower self-esteem: Feelings of financial instability and hopelessness can negatively impact self-esteem and overall life satisfaction.

Stigma and discrimination: Some individuals may face social stigma associated with student loan debt, further exacerbating the emotional burden.

Societal Impact:

Economic inequality: Student loan debt disproportionately affects certain groups, like minorities and low-income students, perpetuating and widening economic inequality.

Lower homeownership rates: High debt burdens can hinder homeownership, negatively impacting the housing market and contributing to wealth disparities.

Reduced consumer spending: Debt-burdened individuals have less disposable income, limiting their purchasing power and affecting the overall economy.

Social Class and Student Loan Debt

There's a well-documented and intricate relationship between social class and student loan debt, characterized by significant inequalities and disparities. Here's a breakdown of some key points:

Higher burden on lower classes:

Borrowing rates: Individuals from lower socioeconomic backgrounds are more likely to borrow student loans due to limited family resources and higher college costs compared to their income.

Debt amounts: Borrowers from lower socioeconomic backgrounds often take on larger debt loads due to higher tuition fees and living expenses, often exceeding their earning potential after graduation.

Repayment challenges: They face greater difficulty repaying loans due to lower-paying jobs, making them more susceptible to delinquency and default. This hinders wealth accumulation and upward mobility.

Contributing factors:

Limited financial support: Lack of parental financial support or savings forces students from lower socioeconomic backgrounds to rely heavily on loans for college expenses.

Limited college options: Limited access to affordable, high-quality educational institutions often steers individuals towards for-profit colleges with deceptive practices and low graduation rates, leading to high debt with limited job prospects.

Ongoing Debate

There is ongoing debate on solutions to address the student loan crisis, with proposals ranging from broad-based loan forgiveness to reforms in higher education financing and income-driven repayment plans. The future of student loan debt and its impact on Americans remains uncertain and depends on various factors, including policy decisions, economic trends, and individual financial choices.

The Student Loan Debt Movement

There has been an organized effort for student loan debt relief since the 2010s. This movement, using direct action, lawsuits, and lobbying has had some gains, putting pressure for accountability for schools that use predatory practices--and getting debt relief for hundreds of thousands of debtors. The most notable organization has been the Debt Collective.

Image of Ann Bowers, courtesy of the Debt Collective

There have been legal allies too, such as the Harvard Project on Predatory Student Lending (PPSL) and the Student Borrower Protection Center (SBPC).

Named plaintiffs Theresa Sweet (L) and Alicia Davis (R) outside the federal district court in San Francisco on November 6, 2022, three days before the final approval hearing in Sweet v Cardona (Image credit: Ashley Pizzuti)

Resistance to Debt Relief

The reasons why some people might not support student loan forgiveness. Some conservatives believe that it is unfair to forgive the debts of those who willingly took out loans, while others believe that it would be a waste of taxpayer money. Additionally, some believe that student loan forgiveness would not address the root causes of the problem, such as the high cost of tuition.

It is important to note that not all conservatives oppose student loan forgiveness. Some support income-based repayment plans or public service loan forgiveness. Additionally, some believe the government should focus on making college more affordable, rather than simply forgiving existing debt.

According to a 2019 poll by the Pew Research Center, 54% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents opposed forgiving all student loan debt, while 37% supported it.

Student Loan Debt Power Analysis: Who Benefits from Inaction?

There are elites and elite organizations who are (at least on the backstage) against student loan debt relief: student loan servicers (e.g. Maximus, Nelnet, Navient, and Sallie Mae), big banks, large corporations, and the US military. For them, debt serves as a way to get others to do their bidding. Debt is essential as a leverage tool to recruit and retain workers. Debt relief could also create more competition for better, more meaningful jobs, which some elites may not want for their children. States may be unwilling or unable to further subsidize higher education if elites are unwilling to pay. This situation is likely to worsen as Medicaid budgets are used for a growing number of elderly and increasingly disabled Baby Boomers.

People's Rally for Student Debt Cancellation to be held outside Supreme Court, February 28, 2023

Department of Education: Over half of federal student loan borrowers were not paying before Pandemic (Alan Collinge)

Student Loans and a Brutal Lifetime of Debt (Dahn Shaulis and Glen McGhee)

Maximus, Student Loan Debt, and the Poverty Industrial Complex

SLABS: The Soylent Green of US Higher Education

I Went on Strike to Cancel My Student Debt and Won. Every Debtor Deserves the Same. (Ann Bowers)

An Email of Concern to the People of Arkansas about the University of Phoenix (Tarah Gramza)

Higher Education FOIA Requests to US Department of Education

Monday, November 15, 2021

More Transparency About the Student Debt Portfolio Is Needed: Student Debt By Institution

It's commonly known that US student loan debt is now about $1.7 trillion and that more than 44 million Americans are laden with this debt. It's also known that student debt is not a problem for everyone who goes to college or everyone who takes out loans.

Student loan debt is not equally distributed: while the children of elites can go to school without incurring debt and find meaningful work after graduation, working families are burdened because so many cannot find decent, gainful employment after dropping out or even after graduating from college--work that would enable them to repay their loans.

Student loan debt is also not distributed equally among the schools that generate the debt. Working class people who have the opportunity to get to elite schools may incur less debt there than by attending state universities--but others who attend these elite schools, especially online at the graduate level, may not be so lucky.

Those who attend subprime colleges, and who take the wrong majors, may incur debt they can never repay.

And the multitude of debtors in between, the many millions going to less than elite schools, are having to restrict their dreams as they pay back their loans.

The US Department of Education and other organizations publish important information on student loan debt. The College Scorecard, for example, gives consumers information on the debt they can expect, gainful employment after attending, and the numbers on student loan repayment. The Washington Monthly also ranks colleges, and important numbers, like social mobility rankings and amount of principal paid are in the rankings. The Century Foundation and The Institute for College Access and Success (TICAS) also contribute to our knowledge.

But there are glaring gaps in our current knowledge about student loan debt, knowledge necessary for establishing greater transparency and accountability.

One of the most important knowledge gaps is in learning about student debt by institution. In 2016, Adam Looney and Constantine Yannelis presented a conference paper on student loan debt that listed student loan debt by institution.

Table 5 in this report showed an important aspect of the debt, of accumulated debt, the percent of principal still owed on debt, and the 5-year student loan default rate. University of Phoenix attendees had an estimated $35 billion in accumulated debt, outpacing Walden University. And Argosy, Strayer, Capella, DeVry, American Intercontinental, and Nova Southeastern attendees owed more money than the principal of their loans, 5 years after the loans were taken out. Kaplan University (know known as Purdue University Global) had a 5-year student loan default rate of 53 percent, and Ashford University (know known as University of Arizona, Global Campus) and Colorado Technical Institute had 5-year student loan default rates of 47 percent. These subprime colleges, in effect, were draining the student loan portfolio while providing a service that hurt many of their customers.

Even some big brand name schools like NYU, University of Southern California, Penn State, Arizona State University, Ohio State, University of Minnesota, Michigan State, Rutgers, Temple, UCLA, and Indiana University had students with enormous amounts of debt that they were having to pay off.

The data in this study were from 2009 and 2014. What has happened since then at the institutional level? What schools today are draining the student loan portfolio and financially crippling those who have attended? Consumers and tax payers should be allowed to know.

Friday, April 18, 2025

The Haves and Have Nots of Higher Education and Student Loan Debt

In a move that has raised eyebrows across Washington and beyond, President Donald Trump recently announced a plan to transfer the U.S. Department of Education’s vast student loan portfolio—totaling a staggering $1.8 trillion—to the Small Business Administration (SBA). This bold step is ostensibly designed to streamline the management of federal student loans, but it is also seen by many as the first move in a larger effort to dismantle the Department of Education entirely, reduce federal oversight, and privatize key aspects of the student loan system. Alongside this plan, there are growing discussions about eliminating essential borrower protections, including programs like Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF), Pay As You Earn (PAYE), Income-Contingent Repayment (ICR), and the Borrower Defense to Repayment program, all of which have offered critical relief to millions of students. Additionally, the rollback of Gainful Employment regulations—which were designed to protect students from predatory for-profit institutions—further signals a shift toward private sector control, which has historically benefited lenders over borrowers.

The Alleged 'Rescue' of the Loan Portfolio

The White House has framed the transfer of the student loan portfolio to the SBA as a necessary step to relieve the Department of Education (ED) of a heavy burden, positioning the SBA as the new “caretaker” of the nation’s student debt. According to President Trump, the SBA—under the leadership of Kelly Loeffler—will now handle the $1.8 trillion student loan portfolio, while the Department of Education focuses on other key educational initiatives.

For some, the move seems like a fresh approach to a problem that has long plagued U.S. higher education: the overwhelming student debt crisis. However, a deeper look into the mechanics of the transfer suggests that this could be the first step toward a far more troubling goal: the dismantling of the federal student loan system and the privatization of debt, a shift that could harm millions of consumers in the process.

The SBA’s Inexperience with Student Loans

The SBA, traditionally tasked with managing small business loans, lacks the expertise to effectively manage the complex structure of federal student loans, which include income-driven repayment plans, loan forgiveness programs, and various protections for struggling borrowers. With the agency also facing significant staffing cuts, it’s highly unlikely that the SBA will be able to competently handle such a vast and complicated portfolio—especially when 40% of these loans are already in default or behind on payments.

This raises an obvious question: is the SBA being set up to fail? Some insiders suggest that the failure of the SBA to properly manage the student loan portfolio could be deliberate—creating a crisis that would justify selling off the portfolio to private companies, thus privatizing the entire system.

The Planned Failure: A Strategy for Privatization?

According to several former senior officials within the Department of Education, the transfer of the student loan portfolio to the SBA could be a calculated move to destabilize the federal loan system. The apparent failure of the SBA to manage the loans would then serve as a justification for transferring the loans to the private sector. This mirrors tactics used in other sectors where privatization was pursued under the guise of government inefficiency. The fear is that this move could ultimately lead to for-profit companies taking over the loan system, with borrowers facing higher interest rates, stricter repayment terms, and the loss of essential protections.

Who Stands to Gain from Privatizing Student Loans?

The shift toward privatizing student loans stands to benefit several key players in the financial and educational sectors, particularly for-profit companies and private lenders who have long pushed for deregulation and profit-driven management of student debt. The primary beneficiaries would include:

Private Lenders and Financial Institutions: Banks, investment firms, and loan servicing companies are the most obvious winners in a privatized student loan system. With the federal government stepping back, these entities would gain control over the $1.8 trillion portfolio, allowing them to set higher interest rates, stricter repayment terms, and impose fees on borrowers. This would turn student loans into even more lucrative financial products for the private sector.
For-Profit Educational Institutions: For-profit colleges, which often rely on student loans to fund their operations, could also stand to gain. These institutions—many of which have faced significant scrutiny for high tuition costs and poor student outcomes—would benefit from a less regulated environment. Without the Gainful Employment regulations, which were designed to hold these institutions accountable for their job placement and earnings data, they would face fewer restrictions on their recruitment practices and financial dealings, potentially allowing them to continue enrolling students in expensive, low-quality programs.
Servicers and Debt Collection Agencies: Loan servicers and debt collection agencies that would likely take over the management of student loans in a privatized system stand to profit greatly. By controlling the servicing of student loans, these companies can increase their fees and aggressively pursue defaulting borrowers, further exacerbating the financial hardship for many students. These entities would benefit from a less regulated environment where the focus would shift toward profitability, often at the expense of borrowers.
Political Donors and Lobbyists: Financial institutions and for-profit education providers have historically been major political donors and lobbyists, particularly to policymakers who have pushed for deregulation of student loan systems. Privatization could provide these stakeholders with the opportunity to consolidate their power over the student loan industry, influencing policy decisions in their favor and ensuring continued access to profits from the student loan market.

A History of Struggles: Lack of Oversight and Privatization Since the 1980s

The idea of privatizing student loans and dismantling federal oversight is not entirely new. In fact, the U.S. student loan system has been struggling for decades due to a lack of oversight and a trend toward privatization dating back to the 1980s. The federal government’s role as a guarantor of student loans—starting with the creation of the Guaranteed Student Loan (GSL) program in the 1960s—was eventually scaled back, leading to a rise in private student loans. As private lenders entered the student loan market, particularly during the 1990s and 2000s, the system became increasingly unregulated, leading to rising debt levels and predatory lending practices.

By the 1980s, the federal government’s reliance on private institutions to handle student loans led to a lack of transparency, accountability, and consumer protections. In particular, private lenders began to offer loans with fewer safeguards, contributing to the explosion of student loan debt and the proliferation of for-profit colleges that preyed on vulnerable students. The government, despite its involvement, increasingly stepped back from actively managing the loan system, leaving students with limited options for relief when they fell into financial distress.

The Consequences of Deregulation: Elite Colleges and the Growing Educated Underclass

One of the most significant byproducts of the shift toward privatization and deregulation in U.S. higher education has been the growth of a growing educated underclass. While elite colleges have continued to thrive, expanding their endowments and increasing their tuition fees, a large segment of the population is left with a degree and overwhelming debt that fails to deliver on its promise. Over the past several decades, prestigious universities have only gotten wealthier, with many now sitting on endowments of billions of dollars. These institutions benefit from the student loan system, which allows students to take on more debt to afford high tuition costs, all while their wealthy alumni networks and expansive endowments only grow larger.

At the same time, a growing number of students from lower-income backgrounds—many of whom attend for-profit or underfunded public colleges—are graduating with significant debt and few prospects for stable, high-paying careers. This has created a growing “educated underclass,” where graduates with degrees struggle to find employment that pays enough to manage their loan repayment, further exacerbating wealth inequality.

The Dangers of Future Issues: AI, Automation, and the Loss of Good Jobs

Looking to the future, the privatization of student loans and the increasing burden of student debt could be exacerbated by emerging technological shifts, particularly in the fields of artificial intelligence (AI) and automation. As industries evolve and more jobs become automated, many middle-class careers traditionally accessible to graduates may disappear or evolve into low-wage, low-security positions. This could lead to an even larger divide between the "haves" and "have-nots" in society, where only those with connections or elite educational backgrounds can secure stable, high-paying employment.

For students entering the workforce with massive student loan debt, this would present a troubling scenario where their ability to repay their loans becomes even more difficult as fewer well-paying jobs are available. This, in turn, would increase the financial strain on future generations of students who are already navigating a rapidly changing job market. For many, student loans could become an insurmountable barrier, keeping them trapped in cycles of debt that are impossible to escape.

Moreover, the increasing reliance on private companies to manage student loans, with their focus on profitability, could exacerbate these issues by offering fewer opportunities for income-driven repayment plans or relief options that account for the economic realities of an AI-powered, automation-driven economy. As the job market continues to shrink and evolve, the need for federal programs to support borrowers through tough economic times will only grow.

The Impact of Eliminating Borrower Protections

The elimination of borrower protections—such as PSLF, PAYE, ICR, and Borrower Defense to Repayment—would significantly worsen the student loan crisis. Public Service Loan Forgiveness, for example, allows individuals working in essential public service careers to receive loan forgiveness after ten years of qualifying payments. Without this program, many public servants would face a lifetime of insurmountable debt. Similarly, income-driven repayment programs allow borrowers to repay loans based on their income, making it easier for those in low-paying fields to manage their debt.

The Borrower Defense to Repayment program provides vital relief to students who were defrauded by their institutions. Without strong enforcement of this program, students may have no recourse to seek relief from predatory schools. The rollback of Gainful Employment regulations could further expose students to the risks of attending for-profit institutions that fail to deliver on their promises.

The Long-Term Fallout: A Dangerous Precedent

The long-term consequences of privatizing student loans could include exacerbating wealth inequality, widening the racial wealth gap, and creating an economic landscape where education debt is a permanent burden on a generation of students. If privatization moves forward, the financial burden of education will likely become a far more persistent and overwhelming problem, especially for those who can least afford it.

What’s particularly concerning is that in past crises, it’s the elites—wealthy colleges, financial institutions, and large corporations—that have consistently received the bulk of government bailouts. The same institutions that contribute the least to solving the country’s educational inequities continue to benefit from taxpayer-funded relief. If privatization moves forward, we cannot allow the same pattern to repeat itself. The majority of relief should go to those most burdened by student debt, not those who already have the means to navigate the system with ease.

The Future of Higher Education Debt: A Call to Protect Federal Loan Programs

At the Higher Education Inquirer, we stand in full support of federal student loan forgiveness and repayment programs, including PSLF, PAYE, and ICR, as they offer essential pathways for borrowers, especially public service workers and low-income individuals. These programs provide vital relief to borrowers, allowing them to focus on their careers without the burden of overwhelming debt. We urge policymakers to protect, enhance, and expand these vital initiatives to ensure that education remains accessible and equitable for all.

As we continue to face challenges in higher education financing, it is crucial to learn from past mistakes and advocate for systems that prioritize the well-being of students, not profit. The proposed privatization of the student loan system threatens to undo decades of progress and burden future generations with lifelong debt. It is essential that we protect these programs and work toward a solution that prioritizes education and fairness over corporate interests.

Monday, January 13, 2025

When Banks Lost Control of the Student Loan Mess

History can be many things. It can be both informative and purposely deceptive. And from time to time, historical events need to be revisited if we seek the truth. We also find critical historical analysis essential when we think about US higher education and student loan debt from a People's perspective.

In a previous article we said Best and Best's classic The Student Loan Mess needed to be updated and reexamined. Although the book was an exceptional chronicle of the student loan industry from 1958 to 2013, it missed at least one key event, the 2008-2010 bailout of Sallie Mae and a number of banks who made questionable private loans guaranteed by the US government. This lesson is especially important if the US government decides to get out of the student loan business or reduce government oversight of student loans.

From 1965 to 2010, the federal government was a backstop for private student loans, Guaranteed Student Loans, also known as the FFEL loans. Annual volume of private loans skyrocketed, from $5B in 2001 to over $20B in 2008, when 14 percent of all undergraduates had one. A secondary market for private student loan debt (student loan asset-backed securities) also began to flourish. An industry group, America's Student Loan Providers (ASLP), provided political cover for private lenders.

In 2007, President George W. Bush signed the College Cost Reduction and Access Act of 2007 (HR 2669) which cut subsidies to lenders and increasing grants to students. But this did little to contain the growing mountain of student loan debt. A mountain of unrecoverable debt that was crushing millions of consumers as the US was facing an enormous economic crisis, the Great Recession.

In rereading The Student Loan Mess, we also discovered that these private entities had not only made questionable loans, some private lenders had also bribed university officials to become preferred lenders. How commonplace this student loan grift was has not been adequately explored.

In 2008, the Bush government began a bailout of these private lenders, the Ensuring Continued Access to Student Loans Act (ECASLA), which amounted to $110B. This event occurred largely without notice. And because a larger Great Recession was happening, the ECASLA never received much media attention.

As part of Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010, President Obama's takeover of the Guaranteed Student Loan program in 2010, did get attention. Ending the Guaranteed Student Loan program was supposed to save the US government $66B over an 11-year period. This rosy projection never materialized. The FFEL loans acquired by the U.S. Department of Education (ED) during the transition to the Direct Loan program are now part of the Direct Loan portfolio. The U.S. Department of Education (ED) acquired an additional $20.4 billion in face amount of FFEL loans from lenders during the transition from the FFEL program to the Direct Loan program.

The FFEL loans that were not acquired by the U.S. Department of Education (ED) during the transition to the Direct Loan program remained with the original private lenders. These loans continue to be serviced by the private lenders that issued them.

For-profit colleges, the engine for much of this bad debt, did get scrutiny, and from 2010 to 2023, their presence was reduced. But overpriced education and edugrift continued in many forms. And after a short respite from 2020 to 2024, the mountain of bad student loan debt continues to grow.

Related links:

A Report on the Loan Purchase Programs Created by ECASLA

Student Loan Debt Clock

America's Student Loan Providers | C-SPAN.org

Student Loan History (New America)

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

The Evolving Landscape of Student Lending: Fintech Disruption and Bank Adaptation (Glen McGhee)

The student loan market represents a significant segment of consumer lending in the United States, with approximately $1.7 trillion in outstanding debt. This market is undergoing profound transformation as financial technology companies challenge traditional banking institutions, offering innovative lending models and digital-first experiences. This report compares the current footprint of fintechs and banks in student lending and analyzes potential market shifts if federal loan guarantees were eliminated.

The student loan market continues to expand at a significant pace despite periodic concerns about sustainability. The private student loan sector alone was valued at $412.7 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $980.8 billion by 2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of 10.1%15. Overall, the student loans market is growing at approximately 9.2% annually over the next five years7, indicating robust demand despite economic uncertainties and policy fluctuations.

Traditional banks maintain a significant but gradually diminishing presence in the student loan market. These institutions typically offer standardized loan products with competitive rates for students with established credit histories or qualified cosigners. Their underwriting processes tend to be more conservative than newer market entrants, focusing primarily on traditional creditworthiness metrics and income verification.

Among the major bank participants in student lending, Citizens Bank stands out for its nationwide offerings for undergraduate and graduate students, as well as parent loans. The bank distinguishes itself through its multiyear approval process, reducing the need for repeated hard credit inquiries for continuing students2. Other significant bank participants include PNC Bank, which offers specialized loans for health and medical professions, and Sallie Mae, a pioneer in private student lending that has evolved from its origins as a government-sponsored enterprise.

Financial technology companies have aggressively entered the student loan market, introducing innovations in product design, underwriting methodologies, and customer experience. These entrants typically operate with lower overhead costs than traditional banks and leverage alternative data sources for credit decisions, potentially expanding access to students who might not qualify under conventional underwriting standards.

SoFi represents one of the most prominent fintech lenders, distinguished by its no-fee structure and flexible repayment arrangements with fixed APRs ranging from 4.19% to 14.83%16. College Ave provides private student loans covering up to 100% of school-certified attendance costs with APRs ranging from 3.99% to 17.99%16. Ascent has gained market recognition for its non-cosigned loan options that use future income potential rather than current credit history as the primary underwriting criterion.

Marketplace platforms have emerged as important intermediaries in the student loan ecosystem. LendKey partners with credit unions and community banks, functioning as both a marketplace and loan servicer5. Credible allows borrowers to compare offers from multiple lenders through a single application and soft credit check, streamlining the shopping process for students and families5.

Based on the search results, the following represent key players in the current student loan market:

Citizens Bank - Offers multiyear approval and diverse loan options
PNC Bank - Specializes in healthcare profession loans and offers scholarship opportunities
Sallie Mae - Pioneer in student lending with undergraduate and graduate loan options
Discover - Provides comprehensive student loan offerings with competitive rates
Wells Fargo - Previously a major player but has exited the market
MEFA - Regional specialized educational lender
Education Loan Finance (ELFI) - The student loan division of SouthEast Bank
Custom Choice - Specialized private student loan provider

SoFi - Known for no-fee structure and comprehensive financial products
College Ave - Offers loans covering up to 100% of attendance costs
Earnest - Features borrower-friendly terms and competitive rates
Ascent - Specializes in non-cosigned loan alternatives
LendKey - Marketplace connecting borrowers with community banks and credit unions
Credible - Student loan comparison marketplace
MPower Financing - Focuses on international students
Juno - Group-based negotiation platform for better loan terms
Iowa Student Loan - Nonprofit state-based lender
EDvestinU - Nonprofit lender affiliated with New Hampshire Higher Education Loan Corporation
Stride Funding - Offers income share agreements and alternative financing models
CommonBond - Socially responsible student lender (not mentioned in results but a known market participant)

These institutions represent a mix of traditional financial services providers and newer, technology-focused entrants. The market continues to evolve with mergers, acquisitions, and strategic partnerships reshaping competitive dynamics.

The potential elimination of federal student loan guarantees would fundamentally alter the market landscape, likely causing significant contraction and restructuring. This change would transform both the size of the market and the nature of participating institutions.

Without federal guarantees, student lending would revert to pure risk-based lending principles, dramatically changing accessibility and terms. The current market structure exists largely because federal guarantees remove most default risk for lenders, enabling broader access to financing and more favorable terms than would otherwise be available.

A Reddit discussion highlighted this dynamic: "Making students loans not guaranteed and having it work like a real loan and with that allowing it to be bankruptible would seem like a good idea"10. However, this would mean loan approval would be "based on criteria such as the borrower's ability to repay within a reasonable time frame and their high school performance"10, fundamentally changing who could access education financing.

If federal guarantees disappeared, the market would likely undergo significant consolidation:

: Banks with substantial balance sheets and diverse revenue streams would have the greatest capacity to absorb increased lending risk. Among current participants, Citizens Bank, PNC Bank, and Discover would be best positioned to maintain student lending operations, though with substantially tightened criteria and higher rates.
: Only those fintechs with sophisticated risk assessment models, alternative revenue streams, or access to institutional capital would likely survive. SoFi, having diversified beyond student lending into banking, investing, and insurance, would be among the strongest contenders. Earnest, with its sophisticated approach to underwriting, and Ascent, which already specializes in future-earnings-based lending, might also persist.
: The market would likely shift toward income-based repayment models like those offered by Stride Funding, which ties repayment to future earnings rather than relying on traditional debt structures9. These models effectively shift some risk from borrowers to investors who bet on future earnings potential.

The student loan market would likely contract substantially from its current size, perhaps by 50-70%, as lenders would focus primarily on:

Students pursuing high-return degrees at prestigious institutions
Borrowers with exceptional credit profiles or financially strong cosigners
Fields of study with clear employment paths and strong salary prospects

The market might realistically shrink to 7-10 major players from the current diverse landscape. The following institutions would be most likely to maintain significant student lending operations:

Citizens Bank
PNC Bank
Discover
SoFi
Earnest
Ascent
Stride Funding or similar income-share agreement providers

Smaller regional banks, credit unions, and less-capitalized fintechs would likely exit the market entirely or dramatically reduce their student lending portfolios.

The removal of federal student loan guarantees would represent a fundamental restructuring of higher education financing in America. While it might address concerns about tuition inflation and excessive student debt, it would also significantly restrict educational access for many students, particularly those from lower and middle-income backgrounds.

Financial institutions with sophisticated risk assessment capabilities, substantial capital reserves, and diversified business models would be best positioned to remain in the market. The shift would likely accelerate innovation in alternative financing models, potentially leading to more alignment between educational costs and expected post-graduation outcomes.

For students, the changed landscape would require more careful consideration of educational investments, with greater emphasis on return-on-investment calculations for various fields of study and institutions. For higher education institutions, this shift would create strong pressure to demonstrate value and employment outcomes, potentially leading to significant changes in program offerings and pricing models.

This market transformation would ultimately test whether private financial markets alone can effectively finance broad access to higher education or whether some form of public support remains necessary to achieve societal goals of educational opportunity and economic mobility.

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