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Saturday, August 10, 2024

2U Collapse Puts Sallie Mae and SLABS Back on the Radar (Glen McGhee)

The collapse of 2U and its subsidiary edX has put Sallie Mae (SLM) on the radar. Many of those elite brand certificate programs (under the name Harvard, MIT, Cal Berkeley) were propped up by Sallie Mae private student loans.

When the adult learners who took these certificate courses from edX did not get better jobs that they were promised, some ended up struggling to pay their loans. Some have defaulted on their loans. And a ripple occurs. As part of a larger edtech meltdown, and with IT jobs being lost each month, the situation promises to get worse.

As a hedge for SLM, most of these loans are processed into Student Loan Asset-Backed Securities (SLABS) and sold off as assets. Large investors, including pension programs are invested directly or indirectly in this mess.

Sallie Mae Boom and Bust

Sallie Mae (SLM) is a private lender that has had a number of problems. Despite being bailed out by the US government and spinning off part of itself, SLM has a poor credit rating that's bad and getting worse.

In 1972, the Nixon administration created the Student Loan Marketing Association, or “Sallie Mae” — a government-sponsored enterprise empowered by the government to use U.S. Treasury money to buy government-backed student loans from banks.

As a publicly traded corporation Sallie Mae has benefited from decades of close government connections.

SLM was very profitable (and very predatory to consumers) when there was little oversight, and the US economy was booming. But when the Great Recession hit in 2008, SLM had to be bailed out when the US government purchased billions of dollars in government-backed student loans. After that bailout, Sallie Mae returned to maximizing profitability. Over the last 5 years, SLM shares have gained 144 percent in value as student borrowers have suffered.

While the economy is doing well enough for the middle class, that could change for the worse, not just for consumers, but also Sallie Mae.

Recent Troubles, Troubles Ahead

In July 2024, Moody's changed its outlook on SLM's long-term from stable to negative, The bond ratings were already less than stellar, a Ba1 for senior unsecured notes. Ratings for some of its Student Loan Asset-Backed Securities were downgraded in 2022.

Help for Student Debtors

For student loan debtors, we recommend joining the Debt Collective and contacting other advocates, including the Student Borrower Protection Center and the Project on Predatory Student Lending.

2U Declares Chapter 11 Bankruptcy. Will Anyone Else Name All The Elite Universities That Were Complicit?

HurricaneTWOU.com: Digital Protest Exposes Syracuse, USC, Pepperdine, and University of North Carolina in 2U edX Edugrift (2024)

2U-edX crash exposes the latest wave of edugrift (2023)

2U Virus Expands College Meltdown to Elite Universities (2019)

Buyer Beware: Servicemembers, Veterans, and Families Need to Be On Guard with College and Career Choices (2021)

College Meltdown 2.1 (2022)

EdTech Meltdown (2023)

Erica Gallagher Speaks Out About 2U's Shady Practices at Department of Education Virtual Listening Meeting (2023)

Tuesday, May 14, 2024

College Meltdown 3.0 Could Start Earlier (And End Worse) Than Planned

Chronicling the College Meltdown

Since 2016, the Higher Education Inquirer has documented the College Meltdown as a series of demographic and business trends leading to lower enrollments and making higher education of decreasing value to working-class and middle-class folks. This despite the commonly-held belief that college is the only way to improve social mobility.

For more than a dozen years, the College Meltdown has been most visible at for-profit colleges and community colleges, but other non-elite schools and for-profit edtech businesses have also been affected. Some regions, states, and counties have been harder hit than others. Non-elite state universities are becoming increasingly vulnerable.

Elite schools, on the other hand, do not need students for revenues, at least in the short run. They depend more on endowments, donations, real estate, government grants, corporate grants, and other sources of income. Elite schools also have more than enough demand for their product even after receiving bad press.

The perceived value and highly variable real value of higher education has made college less attractive to many working-class consumers and to an increasing number of middle-class consumers--who see it as a risky proposition. Degrees in the humanities and social sciences are becoming a tough sell. Even some STEM degrees may not be valuable for too long. Public opinion about higher education and the value of higher education has been waning and many degrees, especially graduate degrees, have a negative return on investment.

Tuition and room and board costs have skyrocketed. Online learning has become more prominent, despite persistent questions about its educational value.

While college degrees have worked for millions of graduates, student loans have mired millions of other former students, and their families, in long-term debt, doing work in fields they aren't happy with.

Elite degrees for people in the upper class still make sense though, as status symbols and social sorters. And there are some professions that require degrees for inclusion. But those degrees and the lucrative jobs accompanying them disproportionately go to foreigners and immigrants, and their children--a demographic wave that may draw the ire of folks who have lived in the US for generations and who may have not enjoyed the same opportunities.

Starting Sooner and Ending Worse

The latest phase of the College Meltdown was supposed to result from a declining number of high school graduates in 2025, something Nathan Grawe projected from lower birth rates following the 2008-2009 recession.

But problems with the federal government's financial aid system may mean that a significant decline in enrollment at non-elite schools starts this fall instead of 2025.

The College Meltdown may become even worse than planned, in terms of lower enrollment and declining revenues to non-elite schools. Enrollment numbers most assuredly will be worse than Department of Education projections of slow growth until 2030.

In 2023, we wrote about something few others reported on: that community colleges and state universities would feel more financial pressure from by the flip-side of the Baby Boom: the enormous costs of taking care of the elderly which could drain public coffers that subsidize higher education. This was a phenomenon that should also have been anticipated by higher education policy makers, but is still rarely discussed. Suzanne Mettler graphed this out in Degrees of Inequality a decade ago--and the Government Accountability Office noted the huge projected costs in 2002.

Saturday, April 5, 2025

HEI Investigation: Is Former Chinese Edtech Ambow Education a Threat to US Security?

The Higher Education Inquirer continues to investigate Ambow Education, the parent company of NewSchool of Architecture & Design (NSAD) and HybriU. HEI has followed Ambow for almost three years, as one of its two US colleges, Bay State College, closed and a second one, NSAD in San Diego has faced financial peril and now faces legal problems, including a possible eviction. We also have watched several questionable events happen with shares of Ambow (AMBO) trading on the New York Stock Exchange. But our greatest concern is that Ambow still has strong ties to the People's Republic of China, and that its proximity to the Pacific Fleet and its expertise in educational surveillance could pose as a potential threat to US security. As the company fails we believe it could become even more vulnerable to PRC interests. We urge any potential customers or strategic partners to do their due diligence before engaging in business with Ambow Education, NSAD, or HybriU.

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