2025 promises to be a disruptive year in higher education and society, not just in DC but across the US. While some now can see two demographic downturns, worsening climate conditions, and a Department of Education in transition, there are other less predictable and lesser-known trends and developments that we hope to cover at the Higher Education Inquirer.
The Trump Economy
Folks are expecting a booming economy in 2025. Crypto and AI mania, along with tax cuts and deregulation, mean that corporate profits should be enormous. The Roaring 2020s will be historic for the US, just as the 1920s were, with little time and thought spent on long-range issues such as climate change and environmental destruction, economic inequality, or the potential for an economic crash.
A Pyramid, Two Cliffs, a Wall and a Door
HEI has been reporting about enrollment declines since 2016. Smaller numbers of younger people and large numbers of elderly Baby Boomers and their health and disability concerns spell troubleahead for states who may not consider higher education a priority. We'll have to see how Republican promises for mass deportations turn out, but just the threats to do so could be chaotic. There will also be controversies over the Trump/Musk plan to increase the number of H1B visas.
Student loan debt is expected to rise again in 2025. After a brief respite from 2020 to late 2024,and some receiving debt forgiveness, untold millions of borrowers will be expected to make payments that they may not be able to afford. How this problem affects an otherwise booming economy has not been receiving much media attention.
Protests may be limited out of fear of persecution, even if there are a number of legitimate issues to protest, to include human induced climate change, genocide in Palestine, mass deportations, and the resurgence of white supremacy. Things could change if conditions are so extreme that a critical mass is willing to sacrifice. Other issues, such as the growing class war, could bubble up. But mass surveillance and stricter campus policies have been emplaced at elite and name brand schools to reduce the odds of conflict and disruption.
The Legitimization of Robocollege Credentials
Online higher education has become mainstream despite questions of its efficacy. Billions of dollars will be spent on ads for robocolleges. Religious robocolleges like Liberty University and Grand Canyon University should continue to grow and more traditional religious schools continue to shrink. University of Southern Hampshire, Purdue Global and Arizona Global will continue to enroll folks with limited federal oversight. Adult students at this point are still willing to take on debt, especially if it leads to job promotions where an advanced credential is needed.
AI will continue to affect society, promising to add more jobs and threatening to take others. One less visible way AI affects society is in academic cheating. As long as there have been grades and competition, students have cheated. But now it's become an industry. Even the concept of academic dishonesty has changed over the years. One could argue that cheating has been normalized, as Derek Newton of the Cheat Sheet has chronicled. Academic research can also be mass produced with AI.
The Layoff.com
is a "simple discussion board"
for workers who would like to learn more about
the rumors or possibility of job cuts in their organization. It's also
been helpful for us to understand what has been happening behind the
scenes in the US Higher Education business.
We
have been observing and participating on this website for more than a
dozen years, watching the fall of Corinthian Colleges (Everest College,
Wyotech, and Heald), ITT Tech, Education Management Corporation (the Art
Institutes and South University), the partial collapse of Apollo Group (University of Phoenix),
Perdoceo (formerly Career Education Corporation), and Laureate
International, and the transformation of Kaplan University to Purdue
University Global and Bridgepoint Education (Ashford University) to
University of Arizona Global.
As the College Meltdown has advanced, we have also observed a number of private schools collapse and public colleges and universities struggle.
As enrollments continue to drop, we can expect more layoffs to occur
and for education related businesses to struggle more.
The
contents of this article are updated periodically, to illustrate trends
in the College Meltdown. The most recent update was published October 29, 2024. 2U, the online program manager for elite university certificates has been the poster child in 2024, but there are many other companies and institutions in peril.
The Higher Education Inquirer has added three companies to its College Meltdown watchlist: Ambow Education (AMBO), SoFi (SOFI), and Adtalem (ATGE).
Leading the way is National American University Holdings (NAUH), which is down to less than $50,000 in cash. Ambow Education (AMBO) and Aspen Group (ASPU) are near penny stock territory and Barnes and Noble Education (BNED) and SoFi (SOFI) are also in deep financial trouble.
Declining share price is not the only factor to make the College Meltdown list. Government contractor Maximus (MMS), for example, is on the list for its predatory behavior with student debtors and its own workers, as well as its questionable contracts with the US Department of Education.
2U is identified for its fleecing of its clients (universities), end customers (students) and shareholders. In its last annual report, the company told shareholders that the number one risk was that it may never make a profit.
2U (TWOU) Shares have dropped 70 percent over the last year (Source: Seeking Alpha)
Shares of student loan refinance company SoFi (SOFI) are down 70 percent over the last year
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Barnes and Noble Education (BNED) shares have dropped 66 percent over the last 6 months.
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Aspen Group (ASPU) shares have declined 82 percent over the last year.
College is supposed to be a transitional space between K-12 education
and good jobs. But savage inequalities in the K-12 pipeline, alienating and sometimes questionably substandard online education, and fewer good jobs
at the end of the pipeline meant that more students would be unprepared for college
and for work life in the brutal tech (fintech, medtech, and edtech) and gig economy.
Banks and big businesses (including brand name universities and for-profit colleges ) were bailed out twice in 2020 by the federal government as student debtors only got temporarily relief.
Savage inequalities in the K-12 pipeline intensified with
online education and thehollowing out of Americacontinued.
Under the Trump administration, privatization, deregulation, and lack of transparency(in gainful employment, defense to repayment,
student loan repayment rate) were the rule. 2021 shows promise for progressive change, but we'll have to wait and see if anything gets done to reduce the College Meltdown.
Who would buy Ashford University, an online school that has lost more than 50 percent of its students and is downsizing key faculty and academic administrators?
[Video above: Dr. Stephen Brewer has reported on the downsizing of key faculty at Ashford and the suspension of the University Senate.]
"A bunch of state schools want online at scale at any cost."...(It's a) race to the bottom. They see their students heading to ASU, SNHU, or the for-profits, and figure if they can get to scale, they will have the time and resources to fix the programs."--anonymous online college expert
Tyton Partners managing director Trace Urdan has suggested that UMass or George Mason might buy Ashford from its parent company, Zovio, but I'm not sure either of those schools would take the risk. In my estimation, Zovio does not have the assets, such as cash on hand, for a safe conversion over the long run. And this lack of assets would make the buyer school more responsible for finances during the conversion.
In my opinion, the most logical buyer would be a school that is WASC accredited (Ashford's current accreditor), large enough to handle the risk, and either does not have a strong online presence or wants to expand its presence. It would also need a president/CEO strong enough and a board and faculty compliant or weak enough to take the bait.
It's possible that a hedge fund or other for-profit firm could create a non-profit specifically for the new school.
In the meantime, Dr. Brewer, is asking for accountability and justice for Ashford University students and professors. After working at the school for a decade, he said that the situation had changed for the worse, "restricting creativity, inhibiting instruction, and demoralizing otherwise talented, motivated, and forward-thinking educators."
For any state university willing to scale up their online presence, be warned. The Kaplan-Purdue University Global deal is not working out, and Purdue bought Purdue Global for $1 and $50 million in free advertising.
The Layoff.com is a "simple discussion board"
for workers who would like to learn more about
the rumors or possibility of job cuts in their organization. It's also been helpful for us to understand what has been happening behind the scenes in the US Higher Education business.
We have been observing and participating on this website for more than a dozen years, watching the fall of Corinthian Colleges (Everest College, Wyotech, and Heald), ITT Tech, Education Management Corporation (the Art Institutes and South University), the partial collapse of Apollo Group (University of Phoenix), Perdoceo (formerly Career Education Corporation), and Laureate International, and the transformation of Kaplan University to Purdue University Global and Bridgepoint Education (Ashford University) to University of Arizona Global.
As the College Meltdown has advanced, we have also observed a number of private schools collapse and public colleges and universities struggle. As enrollments continue to drop, we can expect more layoffs to occur and for education related businesses to struggle more.
The contents of this article are updated periodically, to illustrate trends in the College Meltdown. The most recent update was published September 29, 2024. 2U, the online program manager for elite university certificates has been the poster child in 2024, but there are many other companies and institutions in peril.
The subprime college crash continues for the seventh consecutive year with little attention from the government or media.
Subprime is a more appropriate name than for-profit, because several
non-profit schools offer limited value at a high price. Campus closings, steep decreases in enrollment, low student loan
repayment rates, low graduation rates, and low returns on investment are strong indicators of
"subprime."
University of Phoenix, now part of Apollo Global Management,
continues to close campuses. In total, they have closed more than 450
campuses and learning sites. I expect UoPX to close half of their
remaining campuses in the next 12-18 months.
Art Institutes are closing most of their campuses in 2018 after being taken over by Dream Center Education Holdings. David Halperin has been covering the story in the Huffington Post, but it has received little attention. Argosy University, another system of DCEH schools, is teaching out at least 14 campuses.
DeVry University will be closing more
campuses after their parent company, Adtalem, dumped their brand and
practically gave it away to Cogswell Education/Palm Ventures. They have
already closed eight sites in 2018. Over the past few years, DeVry has
closed 44 of their 90 learning sites.
National American University (NAUH) is in
major trouble. Their stock price has been struggling at $1 a share,
making it vulnerable to delisting. T. Rowe Price is keeping it propped
up. NAUH recently mortgaged their real estate for $8M.
Zenith (ECMC) is completely out of subprime college ownership. The former Corinthian Colleges was propped up by the non-profit student loan company with help from the government.
Kaplan University is now operating as Purdue University Global. But the school remains a subprime effort despite fraudulent claims that it offers a "world-class education."
Ashford University (Bridgepoint) continues to profit amidst state and federal investigations, but enrollment is down as it pursues non-profit status.
Strayer is buying out Capella. The new company is still STRA, but it's known as Strategic Education.
